Market Commentary: Monthly Job Growth Exceeds Expectations, New Stimulus Bill Advances
The U.S. economy returned to rapid job growth last month as fewer new COVID cases and loosening restrictions increased demand for labor. Restaurants and bars accounted for more than half the net gains, as employment in this hard-hit sector increased 286,000. Despite efforts to reopen school …
What to Expect From Low Volatility Investing: Insight into QBI Strategies
During the past decade, ending December 2019, low volatility investing has been embraced by many investors due to above average adjusted performance. With the turn of events, the year 2020 witnessed a negative surprise for low volatility stocks. This surprise further intensified when value …
Market Commentary: Vaccine Distribution, Stimulus Package Driving Economic Growth Estimates
The impact of government stimulus checks continues to permeate economic data. Personal income rose 10% in January, and disposable income rose 11.4%. Where did the money go? It primarily bought goods or was saved. Goods spending rose 5.8% in January, and the personal savings rate jumped to 2 …
Market Commentary: Stimulus Fuels Retail Sales as Strong Housing Market Faces Hurdles
American consumers put their stimulus checks to work last month. Retail and food service sales rose 5.3% in January, after declining 1.0% in December (Figure 1). Compared to one year ago, sales are 7.4% higher. The strong data resulted from the stimulus checks and declining virus cases. Bec …
Market Commentary: Despite Initial Worry, Inflation Remains Well Controlled
U.S. inflation rose 0.3% last month and is now up 1.4% for the year (Figure 1). Investor concern about inflation has increased in recent months against the backdrop of large stimulus packages and hopes of an economic recovery. Pushing back against that concern is a slowly recovering labor …
Market Commentary: Federal Interest Rates Remain Low with No Increases Planned
The U.S. employment situation remains lackluster. Only 49,000 new jobs were created in January. Unemployment dropped but only because labor force participation fell from 63.4% to 61.4% (Figure 1). As COVID-19 cases have dropped this year, some improvement is expected in coming months. Vacc …
Market Commentary: Understanding ‘Short Squeezes’ and Last Week’s Intense Market Demands
The prices of a small set of heavily shorted stocks spiked last week as multiple factors conspired to create an intense demand for shares of some companies. The extreme move in prices has created a large gap between the current price and the price targets of even the most optimistic investors.
How the Biden Administration Could Impact Retirement and Tax Planning
Jamie Hopkins, Director of Retirement Research at Carson, offers insight as our country navigates changes after the inauguration.
5 Things to Watch in the First Quarter of 2021
Have you found yourself officing in a room with a bunk bed? Do you realize you’re going to the store in your pajamas and never leaving your car? Does going to the movies mean going to the living room to turn on the TV? Quarantine changed the world almost overnight, and the adjustment is so …
Market Commentary: Chinese GDP Grew in 2020; U.S. Corporations Outperform Q4 Expectations.
Chinese GDP grew 2.3% in 2020, making it the only major economy to grow last year. In the fourth quarter, the Chinese economy grew 6.5% as China continued to gain ground on the U.S. economy. The growth was led by strong performance in industrial production, which rose 7.3% in December, comp …
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2024 Market Outlook Report
Will the bull market continue in 2024? What about a recession? What will the Fed do? We take a deep dive into our outlook for 2024 in Carson Investment Research’s Outlook ‘24: Seeing Eye to Eye.